Price: Steel prices fell this week. This week 20mm HRB400 material thread price is 3730 yuan/ton, compared with last week -1.0%, hot rolled 3.0mm price is 3900 yuan/ton, compared with last week -1.0%.
This week raw material prices diverged, port iron ore prices fell; Coke prices are flat; Scrap prices are up.
Profits: Rebar profits fell this week. In terms of long process, we calculated that the gross profit of rebar, hot rolled and cold rolled tons in the industry this week was -9 yuan/ton, -3 yuan/ton and -12 yuan/ton, respectively, compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel this week declined from the previous week.
Production and inventory: This week, rebar production rose week on week, the five major steel plant warehouse fell week on week, and the community warehouse rose week on month. In terms of production, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.37 million tons, down 40,200 tons week on week, of which the production of construction steel increased by 0.99 million tons week on week, the production of sheet metal decreased by 50,100 tons week on week, and the rebar increased by 0.69 million tons to 2.772 million tons this week. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory of major steel varieties on Friday increased by 266,500 tons week on week to 1.518,600 tons, and the total inventory of steel mills was 4.480,200 tons, down 63,200 tons week on week, of which, the rebar warehouse increased by 146,100 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 67,400 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2,693,300 tons, up 135,600 tons week on week, and the daily average of construction steel transactions this week is 144,600 tons, down 0.96% week on week
Investment advice: The characteristics of steel off-season are obvious, and the apparent consumption is relatively low. In terms of policy, Tangshan environmental protection limited production in July, limited steel supply release, and the current fundamentals are in a weak pattern of supply and demand. In the short term, entering the off-season, steel consumption is weak, and the apparent consumption of rebar this week is estimated to be 2,693,300 tons, which is relatively low. In terms of inventory, social warehouse and factory warehouse declined slightly. On the supply side, steel production declined slightly, Tangshan limited production in July, and the follow-up steel output was limited under the annual crude steel flat control situation. On the whole, steel is in a weak pattern of supply and demand, and we continue to pay attention to the follow-up policy. Suggestions and concerns: 1) General steel plate block: Baosteel, Baotou Steel, Valin Steel; 2) Special steel plate: Yongjin Shares, CITIC Special Steel, General special material; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel; 4) Graphite electrode mark: square large carbon; 5) Pipe target: Youfa Group, Xinxing cast pipe; 6) Iron ore target: Anning Shares.
Risk warning: real estate steel demand declines more than expected; Steel prices have fallen sharply; Prices of raw materials fluctuate wildly.
[Disclaimer] This article represents the views of third parties only and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.