Last week (July 3-7, the same below), the main contract of rebar closed at 3671 yuan/ton, down 1.34% compared with June 30; The closing price of the main contract of coke was 2069.5 yuan/ton, down 2.59% compared with June 30; The closing price of the main contract of coking coal was 1311.0 yuan/ton, down 2.96% compared with June 30.
In the spot market, construction steel prices were first strong and then weak, down 23 yuan/ton week on week; Steel rebar futures prices show an upward trend of shock; The price of hot-rolled coil mainly fell, and the average price of 3.0mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major markets in the country was 3956 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from June 30. This week’s market is a temporary correction in the rebound process, and there is little room for steel prices to continue to fall.
Steel supply is decreasing and consumption is increasing slightly. Last week, the country’s 247 steel mills blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 92.11%, an increase of 0.13% week on week, an increase of 6.41%. However, the supply of the five major steel varieties was 9,367,200 tons, a decrease of 40,200 tons week on week, a decrease of 0.4%. Specifically, the proportion of production reduction in long-process steel mills has slightly expanded week on week, which has a greater impact on plate varieties. On the demand side, last week, the consumption of the five major steel varieties increased by 1.3% week on week. Among them, the consumption of construction steel increased by 4.2% week on week, and the consumption of plate fell by 0.7% week on week. In addition to hot rolled coil and medium and thick plate last week, the apparent consumption of the rest of the varieties rose slightly week on week, compared with the average last year, the consumption of construction steel at this stage is relatively low. The rise in the market led to a slight increase in steel inventories, last week, the total inventory of five major steel varieties was 16,011,600 tons, an increase of 204,000 tons week on week, an increase of 1.3%.
From the perspective of macro expectations, although the early policy has been released, it has not yet fully landed, and the market game phenomenon is prominent, which makes the current market mixed. From the fundamental performance point of view, the steel supply is slowly increasing, the off-season accumulation trend continues, and the fundamental pressure of the steel market will become more prominent in the later period.
China Metallurgical News (July 12, 2023, 7th Edition)